* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/06/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 82 73 64 56 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 82 73 64 56 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 83 75 68 61 48 38 31 26 21 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 8 9 8 8 6 4 9 4 7 9 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 2 1 -1 0 1 3 3 4 1 2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 5 41 73 65 78 156 156 168 120 81 90 135 182 SST (C) 27.0 26.4 25.8 25.4 24.9 24.1 23.2 22.7 22.5 22.7 22.9 22.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 127 120 116 110 101 91 86 84 85 86 85 85 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.1 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.3 -50.3 -50.5 -50.5 -50.6 -51.0 -51.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 53 50 50 51 51 44 40 37 33 31 27 25 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 20 20 19 16 13 11 8 4 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 36 41 29 27 25 28 28 31 22 14 3 0 -3 200 MB DIV -14 -22 -29 -26 -23 23 19 -10 -6 -4 -9 -5 -2 700-850 TADV -1 2 2 1 1 2 0 -1 -6 -2 -2 2 2 LAND (KM) 203 201 207 207 221 265 258 182 95 34 26 26 30 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.6 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.7 28.6 29.2 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.2 115.9 116.5 117.0 117.7 118.0 117.5 116.7 116.1 116.1 116.1 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 0 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 1 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -18. -27. -35. -43. -48. -51. -55. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -13. -15. -16. -14. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -10. -14. -19. -23. -28. -29. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -26. -34. -51. -66. -81. -93.-106.-116.-122.-124. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/06/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/06/14 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##