* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/06/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 84 74 62 42 28 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 94 84 74 62 42 28 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 97 90 81 72 56 43 35 30 25 20 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 10 9 9 8 3 5 3 8 11 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 3 3 1 3 4 3 5 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 10 14 48 78 76 117 273 139 165 91 74 107 159 SST (C) 27.8 27.0 26.5 25.8 25.4 24.5 23.6 22.8 22.4 22.3 22.4 22.7 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 133 127 120 115 106 96 87 82 79 81 85 93 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.5 -50.7 -50.2 -50.2 -50.2 -50.4 -50.2 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 5 4 6 4 700-500 MB RH 57 54 51 50 51 50 47 43 37 34 29 28 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 22 21 20 18 15 13 9 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 38 36 28 29 25 23 23 33 21 14 8 5 200 MB DIV -13 -20 -21 -18 -21 6 16 13 -6 1 -12 0 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 -5 -6 -6 -5 -3 0 LAND (KM) 151 196 200 193 195 204 227 160 95 65 65 39 -3 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.2 25.5 26.0 26.4 27.3 28.2 29.1 29.8 30.1 29.9 29.9 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.5 115.1 115.7 116.2 117.0 117.3 117.2 116.8 116.6 116.5 116.2 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 0 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -20. -30. -40. -49. -56. -60. -64. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -6. -6. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -22. -27. -30. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -6. -4. -2. 2. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -16. -26. -38. -58. -72. -85. -98.-110.-120.-130.-135. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/06/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/06/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##