* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/06/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 107 103 94 83 61 40 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 107 103 94 83 61 40 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 108 104 96 86 66 51 40 32 26 21 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 11 11 11 6 5 2 9 6 13 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 4 3 3 3 4 2 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 22 18 40 54 81 99 140 157 146 113 115 113 143 SST (C) 28.5 27.9 27.3 26.7 26.0 25.0 24.4 23.4 22.8 22.5 22.8 22.8 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 142 135 129 122 111 104 94 87 81 85 85 82 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 4 3 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 53 51 51 45 42 37 29 23 21 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 23 21 20 18 15 14 10 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 28 31 40 36 34 23 20 18 20 17 9 11 200 MB DIV -2 -11 -24 -26 0 -19 38 23 7 -11 0 -2 12 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 92 136 191 183 181 185 209 212 165 152 174 174 152 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.8 25.1 25.5 25.9 26.8 27.5 28.4 29.2 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.7 114.2 114.8 115.4 116.5 117.1 117.3 117.3 117.3 117.4 117.4 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 5 4 4 3 0 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -18. -29. -39. -48. -56. -61. -65. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -20. -26. -29. -31. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. -2. -11. -22. -44. -65. -80. -99.-114.-126.-137.-144. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/06/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/06/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##