* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/06/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 96 92 84 65 43 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 97 96 92 84 65 43 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 97 96 91 84 67 52 40 31 25 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 10 13 10 8 5 11 11 16 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 2 4 2 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 15 23 18 26 37 63 105 139 135 152 133 136 146 SST (C) 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.3 26.7 25.5 24.8 24.0 22.9 22.6 22.8 22.7 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 147 142 135 129 116 109 100 88 83 85 85 81 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -50.7 -50.3 -50.6 -50.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 3 2 4 3 5 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 54 54 51 47 41 36 29 24 21 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 24 21 20 16 14 10 6 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 43 36 32 37 33 28 25 15 12 15 5 9 7 200 MB DIV 2 0 -6 -16 -19 -26 13 26 21 1 13 -2 4 700-850 TADV 4 2 1 2 1 3 -1 -1 -4 -5 -4 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 93 99 141 192 183 193 198 236 200 182 169 152 135 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.4 24.7 25.1 25.5 26.3 27.0 27.9 29.0 29.4 29.1 29.3 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.2 113.7 114.3 114.8 116.0 116.8 117.4 117.6 117.6 117.3 117.2 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 8 6 3 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -10. -18. -27. -35. -42. -48. -52. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -15. -21. -27. -31. -30. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -3. -11. -30. -52. -69. -88.-105.-119.-127.-134. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/06/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/06/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##