* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/05/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 77 76 70 57 40 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 80 77 76 70 57 40 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 79 78 74 70 58 46 35 28 22 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 15 15 10 16 11 9 11 16 22 27 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 5 3 6 6 6 4 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 34 30 38 31 43 77 113 121 124 124 120 134 144 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.7 27.0 25.9 25.2 24.5 23.7 23.2 23.0 22.6 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 147 140 132 121 113 105 96 90 88 84 81 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.3 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 -50.8 -51.2 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 62 61 59 58 53 50 45 40 32 29 25 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 23 25 23 21 19 17 14 9 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 35 35 27 32 24 20 21 16 6 0 -2 -3 200 MB DIV -10 -2 -11 14 -10 -4 -13 29 21 15 20 25 16 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 0 0 1 2 1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 137 116 106 156 194 193 214 250 271 240 199 174 174 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.2 25.9 26.6 27.4 28.1 28.6 28.9 29.4 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.7 113.2 113.9 114.5 115.6 116.7 117.5 117.8 117.8 117.5 117.5 117.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 29 21 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -14. -20. -25. -30. -34. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -3. -5. -9. -11. -16. -23. -30. -32. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -4. -10. -23. -40. -55. -72. -90.-108.-120.-129. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/05/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/05/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##