* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/05/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 78 74 71 58 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 80 78 74 71 58 42 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 79 77 74 70 60 48 38 29 23 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 17 14 13 11 12 7 5 12 15 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 0 0 6 2 9 8 5 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 24 30 22 29 30 31 80 102 111 126 111 114 111 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.6 26.1 25.3 24.6 23.9 23.3 23.1 22.8 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 145 139 123 114 106 99 91 89 85 83 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.0 -50.5 -50.0 -50.2 -50.2 -50.8 -51.0 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 4 5 3 3 2 3 2 4 3 700-500 MB RH 68 66 60 59 58 53 51 47 44 39 33 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 25 26 23 21 19 15 12 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 47 53 46 43 35 39 31 24 8 6 4 0 -5 200 MB DIV 17 3 -1 -5 -20 3 2 31 10 15 -11 6 -2 700-850 TADV 3 8 5 0 0 1 2 1 0 -4 -6 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 147 140 102 117 171 184 200 226 275 277 253 235 235 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.5 24.0 24.5 24.9 25.8 26.5 27.2 27.9 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.3 112.8 113.4 114.0 115.3 116.4 117.2 117.8 118.1 118.0 118.0 118.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 24 29 14 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -12. -18. -24. -28. -32. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -32. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -6. -9. -22. -38. -54. -70. -85.-105.-117.-125. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/05/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/05/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##