* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/05/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 80 79 77 69 55 40 26 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 80 80 79 77 69 55 40 26 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 79 78 76 73 65 56 47 38 32 27 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 9 10 9 9 7 6 6 5 9 9 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 0 2 3 3 5 4 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 53 27 45 30 16 13 47 108 150 180 151 119 109 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.1 25.8 25.1 24.5 23.8 23.0 22.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 150 146 134 120 112 105 98 89 83 87 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.3 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 72 69 66 61 60 60 54 52 47 42 33 26 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 25 25 25 23 21 19 15 13 8 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 49 42 41 45 33 35 21 14 17 16 6 200 MB DIV 24 21 2 15 2 -33 17 0 39 12 5 -10 -2 700-850 TADV -1 2 4 3 0 0 3 3 1 0 -3 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 145 152 145 123 112 189 192 207 252 301 300 296 296 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.8 23.3 23.8 24.2 25.2 26.0 26.7 27.3 28.0 28.7 29.0 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 111.7 112.2 112.7 113.2 114.4 115.7 116.7 117.5 118.1 118.6 118.7 118.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 29 21 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -9. -15. -20. -25. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. -24. -28. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -11. -25. -40. -54. -65. -81. -93.-103. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/05/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/05/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##