* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 82 81 79 70 54 38 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 81 82 81 79 70 54 38 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 81 81 79 76 68 59 49 40 32 26 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 13 8 6 9 8 6 9 7 7 8 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 3 2 0 5 2 5 3 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 45 52 53 47 46 21 62 85 121 126 137 102 110 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.5 26.4 25.5 24.7 23.9 22.9 22.4 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 150 147 138 126 117 108 100 88 82 78 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.4 -50.4 -49.9 -49.5 -50.1 -49.6 -50.4 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -50.6 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 3 4 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 64 57 55 51 46 39 35 29 21 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 27 26 25 21 19 15 10 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 49 46 50 47 32 31 20 10 10 11 10 5 200 MB DIV 35 32 11 15 24 -24 -6 -9 20 2 -1 -20 9 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 0 0 3 0 2 -3 -6 -2 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 168 168 169 170 141 183 211 223 249 314 305 313 309 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.3 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.6 25.5 26.3 27.1 27.9 28.8 29.2 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.5 112.0 112.5 113.0 114.1 115.3 116.5 117.4 118.2 118.7 119.0 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 30 21 25 28 16 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -19. -23. -28. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -7. -10. -16. -22. -30. -31. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -1. -10. -26. -42. -59. -76. -92.-101.-111. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/05/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/05/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##