* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/04/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 83 84 81 71 61 45 31 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 82 83 84 81 71 61 45 31 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 83 84 82 80 71 61 51 42 34 27 22 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 16 13 9 12 11 14 6 9 10 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 0 6 3 3 3 6 8 5 5 0 SHEAR DIR 43 57 54 40 52 63 21 80 101 128 139 139 126 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.7 26.8 26.0 25.3 24.6 23.8 23.0 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 149 146 140 130 122 114 107 98 89 83 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.1 -50.3 -50.1 -49.7 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -50.1 -50.4 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 72 72 67 65 60 52 50 46 46 40 37 31 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 29 28 26 26 22 20 18 14 10 5 850 MB ENV VOR 47 61 55 50 55 46 41 32 39 19 10 0 -10 200 MB DIV 29 49 47 15 -10 -15 -1 -2 0 39 13 19 15 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 3 4 2 1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 230 201 198 215 216 196 283 289 298 334 364 340 313 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.8 24.6 25.4 26.3 27.1 27.9 28.6 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.1 111.6 112.2 112.8 113.9 115.1 116.4 117.5 118.3 118.8 119.0 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 22 19 21 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -21. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. -1. -1. -6. -9. -12. -17. -24. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 2. -9. -19. -35. -49. -62. -77. -93.-108. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/04/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/04/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##