* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 81 84 83 77 66 52 36 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 78 81 84 83 77 66 52 36 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 78 80 79 78 71 62 52 43 34 27 22 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 13 13 10 13 13 11 11 11 8 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 5 6 2 10 3 8 4 8 2 SHEAR DIR 32 32 43 28 42 57 59 67 87 104 134 143 139 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.5 25.8 25.0 23.9 23.2 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 150 149 144 135 127 120 112 100 91 84 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.5 -50.0 -50.0 -49.9 -49.7 -50.4 -49.7 -50.4 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 5 5 4 4 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 74 71 72 69 68 61 54 52 49 45 39 34 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 28 28 29 29 28 27 24 20 18 16 12 7 850 MB ENV VOR 44 48 61 55 46 42 34 28 28 25 11 1 -6 200 MB DIV 5 17 45 34 7 -1 -7 11 -14 20 11 8 3 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 0 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 278 232 201 201 216 199 244 307 297 298 354 357 353 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.3 23.2 23.9 24.7 25.6 26.6 27.7 28.4 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.7 111.1 111.6 112.1 113.2 114.5 115.7 116.7 117.7 118.6 119.1 119.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 29 32 31 23 19 14 4 39 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -7. -9. -13. -18. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 8. 2. -9. -23. -39. -52. -66. -79. -92. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/04/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/04/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##