* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 74 76 76 75 67 58 46 33 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 73 74 76 76 75 67 58 46 33 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 75 76 75 71 65 58 51 43 36 29 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 17 18 17 9 13 8 12 8 8 7 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 4 4 6 2 4 5 4 5 SHEAR DIR 41 34 39 39 59 33 48 52 86 109 133 156 164 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.3 27.3 26.1 25.2 24.5 23.5 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 155 153 149 146 136 123 113 106 96 85 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -49.8 -50.3 -49.8 -49.8 -50.4 -49.9 -50.1 -50.1 -50.1 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 74 70 65 59 60 56 55 49 42 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 26 26 28 27 28 26 25 23 20 18 15 10 850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 47 68 60 52 52 51 32 44 28 14 7 200 MB DIV 41 7 2 50 52 21 13 4 16 25 55 24 14 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -4 -3 0 -3 0 0 1 1 2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 302 250 204 166 162 174 127 201 219 214 223 258 222 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.7 22.2 23.2 24.0 24.8 25.6 26.5 27.3 28.3 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.0 110.4 110.9 111.4 112.5 113.2 114.3 115.6 116.6 117.2 117.8 118.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 44 41 35 40 33 32 43 46 41 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 2. 1. -2. -6. -8. -12. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. -3. -12. -24. -37. -47. -59. -73. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/04/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##