* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 79 83 84 81 73 62 49 35 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 75 79 83 84 81 73 62 49 35 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 75 78 79 79 74 66 57 48 40 33 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 16 19 17 11 9 14 10 7 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -1 0 0 7 5 6 4 9 6 8 SHEAR DIR 59 45 50 41 47 63 47 74 57 115 86 145 161 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.5 26.8 26.0 25.1 24.3 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 151 151 150 146 137 130 122 113 104 93 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -50.1 -49.6 -50.1 -49.2 -50.1 -49.5 -50.3 -49.7 -50.1 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 76 75 72 72 71 66 61 58 55 51 45 42 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 26 27 29 30 29 28 26 24 20 17 14 8 850 MB ENV VOR 61 58 51 56 66 52 54 44 43 42 33 14 2 200 MB DIV 62 48 8 11 52 24 10 -22 -4 0 39 19 28 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -4 -1 0 2 0 0 1 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 346 305 271 233 207 200 165 193 258 260 269 287 271 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.2 20.5 21.0 21.4 22.5 23.5 24.2 24.8 25.5 26.5 27.5 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.1 110.5 110.9 111.2 112.1 113.1 114.1 115.0 116.1 117.3 117.9 118.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 29 29 27 20 15 2 40 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 394 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 1. -4. -7. -12. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 14. 11. 3. -8. -21. -35. -47. -59. -73. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/04/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/04/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##