* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 76 78 80 78 66 54 41 30 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 76 78 80 78 66 54 41 30 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 66 70 72 73 71 66 60 52 44 37 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 18 13 17 17 17 19 14 15 11 15 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -2 0 0 0 1 4 0 5 0 4 SHEAR DIR 63 68 59 62 66 69 37 59 66 93 96 114 134 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.4 26.5 26.0 25.5 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 153 153 153 152 149 145 136 127 121 116 108 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 77 78 75 75 73 69 66 62 59 55 51 50 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 22 25 25 26 27 25 23 21 19 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 44 61 53 49 59 69 63 51 49 40 44 22 14 200 MB DIV 44 62 46 13 11 45 40 18 14 -5 0 -9 6 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -6 -4 -5 -1 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 362 360 322 273 228 181 200 170 206 268 311 295 258 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.8 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.0 25.3 26.0 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.5 109.9 110.2 110.5 111.3 112.2 113.2 114.3 115.5 116.6 117.2 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 31 30 31 24 21 12 2 37 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 379 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -17. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 9. 11. 8. 6. 2. 0. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 18. 20. 18. 6. -6. -19. -30. -40. -48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##