* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 72 78 83 83 79 68 58 47 37 28 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 72 78 83 83 79 68 58 47 37 28 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 66 70 72 74 72 68 62 54 47 41 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 15 15 20 12 17 16 18 13 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -3 -2 1 -1 3 0 7 0 SHEAR DIR 58 77 79 77 70 75 62 36 50 63 90 84 110 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 27.9 26.9 26.1 25.6 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 157 156 155 154 152 150 142 131 123 117 111 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.2 -50.8 -49.7 -50.3 -50.1 -50.6 -50.0 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 8 8 5 6 5 5 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 77 76 78 76 75 71 66 65 61 59 55 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 17 18 20 21 23 24 22 21 19 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 34 48 62 55 49 72 55 57 38 49 46 38 23 200 MB DIV 36 43 69 50 46 27 21 35 -27 -7 30 28 -17 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -2 -4 -4 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 292 337 306 261 223 153 163 146 152 248 292 304 303 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.6 20.9 21.8 22.7 23.5 24.3 24.8 25.2 25.8 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 108.4 108.9 109.4 109.8 110.2 110.9 111.8 112.6 113.7 114.8 116.2 117.1 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 38 34 33 28 22 25 4 43 33 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 414 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 12. 11. 8. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 23. 28. 28. 24. 13. 3. -8. -18. -27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##