* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 59 64 74 74 72 63 53 46 41 35 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 59 64 74 74 72 63 53 46 41 35 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 57 60 64 65 63 58 53 47 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 13 13 15 19 13 16 12 12 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -4 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 60 72 78 77 89 71 83 49 58 63 69 56 101 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.2 26.6 26.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 161 160 158 156 154 150 144 134 127 122 118 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 77 75 74 72 69 66 65 62 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 15 16 17 21 20 21 19 17 17 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 40 42 62 64 56 63 68 62 50 39 38 34 31 200 MB DIV 40 27 50 70 57 66 21 44 19 -14 14 -22 -21 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 200 237 285 305 252 169 145 175 157 229 311 335 356 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.4 20.7 21.4 22.2 23.0 23.8 24.3 24.6 25.0 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.9 108.4 108.9 109.4 110.3 111.2 112.3 113.4 114.5 115.6 116.6 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 41 50 51 41 28 19 26 10 3 40 39 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 17. 20. 20. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. -17. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 11. 13. 10. 7. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 29. 27. 18. 8. 2. -4. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##