* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 51 54 64 67 65 62 56 50 43 36 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 51 54 64 67 65 62 56 50 43 36 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 46 48 52 55 55 53 49 45 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 9 15 15 23 15 17 15 17 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 0 -3 0 -1 -1 -3 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 37 57 68 68 79 65 69 70 55 66 70 90 93 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 161 159 156 152 148 144 136 130 126 122 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -50.6 -51.1 -50.0 -50.8 -50.1 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 9 7 7 5 6 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 75 77 76 71 69 65 58 53 53 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 19 18 22 21 21 21 21 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 29 40 38 55 62 52 67 51 51 32 38 37 32 200 MB DIV 58 43 22 46 39 38 57 -13 11 -12 -4 -7 -4 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -4 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 180 202 232 291 314 233 195 223 219 248 322 407 457 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.2 23.0 23.5 23.6 23.9 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.3 107.8 108.5 109.1 110.0 111.0 112.1 113.2 114.3 115.2 116.2 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 41 48 46 33 22 17 16 6 3 2 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 23. 23. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 11. 14. 24. 27. 25. 22. 16. 10. 3. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##