* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 44 52 57 56 54 48 43 38 36 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 44 52 57 56 54 48 43 38 36 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 37 38 40 42 42 41 39 36 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 12 14 14 19 17 18 13 16 14 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 1 1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 37 40 52 62 69 83 68 89 78 81 108 100 104 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.3 26.7 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 161 158 153 150 147 143 136 129 125 121 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 82 80 78 76 75 76 74 73 68 61 58 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 15 16 18 20 19 19 18 17 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 7 28 33 26 44 46 42 48 49 38 30 36 32 200 MB DIV 33 51 38 15 15 4 9 39 7 -9 -3 6 -12 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 -5 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 206 209 213 269 335 323 265 249 278 299 401 478 495 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.4 19.6 20.0 20.6 21.5 22.4 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 106.9 107.3 108.1 108.8 109.7 110.7 111.9 113.1 114.5 115.9 116.8 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 6 5 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 34 39 41 35 25 15 14 7 3 1 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 858 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 8. 8. 6. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 22. 21. 19. 13. 8. 3. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/02/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##