* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 46 50 52 50 50 47 45 41 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 39 46 50 52 50 50 47 45 41 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 37 38 39 39 40 40 40 39 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 12 10 13 18 21 19 13 12 7 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 0 0 -4 -1 -1 0 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 43 45 54 54 65 68 80 75 65 59 61 86 35 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.7 28.9 27.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 156 156 159 161 162 163 164 161 153 133 119 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -50.5 -51.1 -50.3 -50.6 -49.8 -50.3 -49.8 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 7 10 8 10 7 8 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 83 82 80 78 77 76 77 77 75 72 69 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 18 18 19 17 18 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 1 7 19 19 20 66 46 62 53 66 40 52 40 200 MB DIV 50 39 58 43 18 50 17 17 -6 9 -16 10 6 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -2 -4 0 2 0 0 -1 0 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 333 298 274 269 264 262 283 127 29 39 51 145 170 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.7 20.7 21.9 23.0 24.1 24.9 25.6 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.0 107.2 107.4 107.6 108.1 108.6 109.4 110.4 111.6 112.8 114.3 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 29 28 30 32 43 55 32 24 14 14 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 858 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 9. 11. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 15. 17. 15. 15. 12. 10. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/02/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##