* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/10/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 15 21 22 21 18 20 18 25 26 32 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 3 3 1 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 228 234 233 241 245 276 294 313 287 276 260 251 N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 125 126 126 129 132 133 134 133 131 130 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 44 40 43 41 39 40 34 31 31 33 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 3 0 7 8 8 18 17 28 14 21 N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -23 -24 -19 -25 -50 -52 -32 -20 -3 7 0 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 N/A LAND (KM) 1872 1922 1973 2011 2050 2183 2348 2285 2111 1961 1885 1790 N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.4 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.2 14.6 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.6 129.0 129.4 129.8 130.1 131.2 132.7 134.0 135.7 137.1 137.7 138.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 4 5 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 5 7 6 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -17. -24. -27. -30. -32. -34. -36. -34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/10/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/10/13 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING