* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142013 10/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 45 51 57 58 56 49 43 36 32 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 45 51 57 58 56 49 43 36 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 45 49 50 48 45 40 36 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 14 12 5 1 7 10 15 21 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -3 0 -2 0 0 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 57 70 65 70 85 350 341 268 224 236 245 268 287 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 147 143 138 134 130 128 126 126 126 126 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 59 61 58 62 64 62 60 58 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 12 13 12 13 13 14 13 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 32 30 26 6 -1 -2 1 11 14 6 9 200 MB DIV 69 78 49 34 40 42 43 38 20 21 4 2 -18 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 5 4 LAND (KM) 1459 1531 1595 1642 1695 1753 1785 1791 1764 1762 1774 1811 1865 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.5 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.6 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 119.2 120.3 121.4 122.5 123.5 125.0 126.1 126.6 126.7 126.9 127.3 127.8 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 7 5 2 2 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 15 11 8 2 7 7 4 1 4 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 4. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 21. 27. 28. 26. 19. 13. 6. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142013 FOURTEEN 10/07/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 FOURTEEN 10/07/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##