* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP142012 09/29/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 27 28 29 30 30 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 28 29 31 28 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 27 28 26 29 26 26 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 34 38 38 39 43 46 55 49 55 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 3 6 9 10 7 0 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 265 258 257 262 277 290 307 313 327 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.4 31.4 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.0 31.0 30.5 30.5 30.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 168 166 167 167 168 167 166 168 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 10 8 9 6 6 4 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 51 46 44 38 30 26 24 22 23 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 47 15 -5 -11 -15 -9 -24 -19 -40 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -31 -34 -48 -44 -48 -46 -72 -60 -52 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 0 8 2 13 1 10 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 5 15 39 38 37 6 -11 19 -14 -22 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.9 27.1 27.6 28.2 28.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.5 109.7 109.8 109.8 110.0 110.0 110.8 111.1 110.4 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 2 1 2 2 3 4 2 4 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 37 48 48 47 34 11 39 15 77 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 786 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 32. 35. 38. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -19. -32. -45. -52. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -4. -9. -18. -23. -25. -25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142012 NORMAN 09/29/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)