* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP142012 09/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 25 26 30 34 33 30 23 20 19 19 V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 27 25 26 26 27 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 27 28 26 26 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 26 31 32 34 41 40 53 49 52 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 0 5 11 6 6 2 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 263 263 261 260 271 280 295 310 316 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.3 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.4 31.1 31.0 30.9 30.6 30.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 168 167 168 167 167 168 167 167 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 10 7 10 5 8 4 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 58 52 47 45 38 31 29 23 24 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 71 47 17 -6 -27 -18 -12 -22 -15 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 -12 -23 -31 -47 -42 -37 -77 -60 -60 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 1 0 1 4 4 9 4 4 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 56 16 -3 -1 0 -54 -77 -76 0 -18 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.2 26.4 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.1 109.3 109.3 109.2 109.3 109.2 109.5 110.6 110.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 5 4 2 3 2 1 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 58 14 12 29 52 77 17 76 20 16 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 12 CX,CY: -1/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 8. 16. 24. 32. 35. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -15. -28. -39. -46. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -4. 0. 4. 3. 0. -7. -10. -11. -11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142012 NORMAN 09/29/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)