* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP142012 09/28/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 38 42 43 40 33 25 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 32 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 28 37 37 49 52 53 56 49 48 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 8 8 4 -3 -1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 232 254 264 263 266 275 288 303 304 310 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 31.2 31.5 31.3 31.0 30.6 30.3 30.0 29.4 28.9 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 171 170 170 169 166 163 156 150 145 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -53.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 8 6 6 3 4 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 56 51 45 37 30 24 22 19 18 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 91 71 53 14 -33 -37 -32 -38 -17 -21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 50 -6 -38 -43 -44 -50 -53 -55 -44 -30 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 0 0 3 0 12 0 3 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 98 56 -46 -23 -56 -62 -125 -181 -148 -79 -79 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.9 26.0 26.6 27.2 28.2 29.1 30.0 30.7 31.3 31.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.6 108.7 108.8 109.1 109.4 110.0 110.3 110.6 111.4 112.2 112.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 7 6 5 5 5 5 3 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 58 58 82 82 76 22 14 10 4 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 15 CX,CY: 0/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 23. 29. 32. 32. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -18. -32. -44. -53. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 8. 5. -2. -10. -19. -22. -24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142012 NORMAN 09/28/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)