* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012014 05/27/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 87 80 75 74 63 56 52 45 39 32 29 26 V (KT) LAND 95 87 80 75 74 63 56 52 45 39 32 29 26 V (KT) LGE mod 95 86 79 74 68 59 51 44 39 37 37 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 19 21 19 17 9 4 6 3 8 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 4 10 12 15 7 0 2 4 7 1 SHEAR DIR 169 177 185 197 184 208 249 179 211 69 115 116 127 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 149 146 144 141 138 136 136 135 134 134 136 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 67 67 64 57 52 44 41 36 35 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 21 22 24 21 21 22 20 20 17 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 66 65 50 48 53 46 49 48 53 54 43 49 50 200 MB DIV 132 83 65 95 105 41 47 45 -15 5 3 7 0 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 3 2 2 3 0 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 985 965 946 929 910 856 797 770 757 733 711 714 747 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.7 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.0 112.1 112.2 112.3 112.3 112.1 111.9 111.8 111.7 111.7 111.8 112.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 40 35 30 26 21 15 10 9 9 7 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -9. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -11. -7. -4. -1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -11. -11. -8. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. 0. -4. -4. -3. -5. -6. -9. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -20. -21. -32. -39. -43. -50. -56. -63. -66. -69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012014 AMANDA 05/27/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012014 AMANDA 05/27/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##