* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992012 10/30/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 26 27 25 23 19 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 26 27 25 23 19 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 31 28 24 24 22 26 26 28 27 37 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 1 2 4 6 3 2 0 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 301 307 313 314 305 310 281 278 273 265 247 253 233 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 151 150 148 146 146 145 145 145 146 148 151 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 64 60 56 52 54 55 54 54 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 5 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -38 -41 -49 -51 -52 -47 -27 -16 0 1 18 33 200 MB DIV 38 17 5 -3 -1 2 35 37 54 42 21 46 83 700-850 TADV 1 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 651 645 629 628 630 644 660 683 690 706 676 587 435 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.4 16.2 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.6 108.2 108.6 108.9 109.3 109.5 109.7 109.7 109.9 109.8 109.4 108.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 3 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 43 48 51 54 54 52 49 49 46 48 52 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -6. -7. -10. -12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992012 INVEST 10/30/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)