* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992012 07/18/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 30 37 42 45 48 47 45 43 41 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 30 37 42 45 48 47 45 43 41 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 32 33 35 36 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 5 4 5 4 5 7 5 5 7 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -3 -6 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 34 49 29 86 63 113 162 187 157 192 224 200 216 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.6 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 144 144 144 144 145 145 142 137 130 122 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 71 71 68 64 60 59 55 49 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 9 10 11 1 -6 -9 -10 -17 -11 -4 3 200 MB DIV 39 9 4 8 30 41 4 24 21 29 44 47 28 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 -1 1 4 LAND (KM) 1553 1598 1647 1688 1720 1791 1906 2041 2181 2322 2486 2473 2242 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.3 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.2 116.0 117.0 117.9 119.8 121.8 124.0 126.3 128.6 130.9 133.2 135.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 43 36 31 29 24 18 30 36 27 26 9 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 17. 22. 25. 28. 27. 25. 23. 21. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992012 INVEST 07/18/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)