* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992012 07/18/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 44 51 56 56 54 51 52 52 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 44 51 56 56 54 51 52 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 28 33 37 40 40 40 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 6 6 5 4 3 5 4 5 3 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 2 -3 -3 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 159 136 43 55 84 114 162 192 239 243 222 180 161 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 145 144 144 145 146 147 145 141 137 131 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 72 71 69 65 63 61 57 53 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 13 9 12 10 14 12 7 -1 -3 -1 0 2 200 MB DIV 105 77 37 4 4 41 25 16 21 43 51 35 33 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1516 1568 1625 1682 1715 1808 1922 2071 2213 2386 2559 2549 2316 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.0 10.2 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.5 115.4 116.3 117.2 119.3 121.4 123.6 125.9 128.4 130.8 133.2 135.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 36 35 28 21 21 25 15 29 37 25 20 15 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 31. 36. 36. 34. 31. 32. 32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992012 INVEST 07/18/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%)