* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 09/02/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 43 52 53 54 47 38 30 23 17 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 43 52 53 54 47 38 30 23 17 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 37 38 38 36 32 27 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 20 14 14 17 12 13 8 8 9 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -2 0 -4 1 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 44 56 53 63 56 52 71 41 43 79 97 75 118 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.0 25.6 23.7 22.3 21.4 21.2 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 156 154 151 144 134 119 99 84 75 73 68 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -51.8 -52.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 87 87 86 85 80 74 66 65 58 58 56 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 16 16 14 17 16 17 15 14 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 29 31 28 31 36 40 52 70 45 47 43 34 44 200 MB DIV 89 82 95 100 86 55 38 3 -5 -6 8 3 0 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -5 -8 -3 -4 -6 -2 -1 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 561 568 576 624 676 634 709 739 811 892 987 1119 1284 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 51 48 34 27 18 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 20. 19. 18. 15. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 4. 6. 3. 1. 0. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 13. 22. 23. 24. 17. 8. 0. -7. -13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 09/02/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)