* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 09/02/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 44 48 56 64 64 57 48 39 30 24 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 44 48 56 64 64 57 48 39 30 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 39 38 36 33 29 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 11 13 11 9 14 16 12 12 14 7 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 1 -1 1 -1 1 0 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 35 32 41 43 49 24 19 43 22 55 77 72 76 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.1 26.2 25.0 23.4 21.6 21.6 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 157 153 149 146 136 125 113 97 78 76 76 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -51.5 -52.0 -50.7 -51.2 -50.3 -51.3 -51.3 -52.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 86 85 85 85 82 78 74 68 62 58 56 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 16 18 17 19 22 23 21 19 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 32 37 36 37 43 34 36 53 51 54 49 48 54 200 MB DIV 118 89 97 102 115 69 57 18 -5 -7 7 13 12 700-850 TADV -6 -1 -1 1 -6 -10 -16 -12 -6 -8 -3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 535 494 472 464 491 526 539 638 770 932 1032 1158 1266 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 14 12 13 14 13 9 9 12 11 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 41 51 46 39 23 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 22. 20. 18. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 12. 13. 10. 8. 6. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 18. 26. 34. 34. 27. 19. 9. 0. -6. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 09/02/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)