* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962012 07/04/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 45 52 63 72 76 78 74 69 65 58 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 45 52 63 72 76 78 74 69 65 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 40 46 51 55 58 58 55 50 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 15 10 9 12 10 8 5 9 5 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 -4 0 0 2 0 4 3 7 SHEAR DIR 20 13 26 36 40 29 22 36 22 346 324 271 319 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.5 26.2 25.2 24.4 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 151 150 148 144 140 136 129 126 115 105 102 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -53.3 -53.5 -52.6 -53.0 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 76 76 74 69 67 64 62 59 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 13 14 16 18 19 20 20 19 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -32 -32 -31 -25 -21 -10 -8 -4 -1 8 -4 -18 200 MB DIV 97 79 51 54 37 32 36 25 37 -31 -11 -7 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -2 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 0 3 9 8 LAND (KM) 750 734 731 744 762 807 896 962 1017 1137 1271 1383 1482 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 9 10 12 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 45 45 45 35 26 19 8 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 24. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 33. 42. 46. 48. 44. 39. 35. 28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962012 INVEST 07/04/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)