* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962012 07/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 50 53 56 59 62 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 50 53 56 59 62 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 35 39 45 50 57 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 18 18 16 13 13 12 11 9 7 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -6 -6 -4 -3 -7 -4 -6 -6 -5 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 336 347 348 357 353 16 30 43 44 43 60 22 280 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 157 157 157 156 152 147 144 144 143 142 140 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 75 74 75 74 73 73 75 76 71 71 64 59 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -33 -28 -26 -24 -27 -24 -32 -35 -29 -27 -18 -18 200 MB DIV 77 53 43 36 39 32 23 21 -6 0 0 -27 -21 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 723 733 751 768 786 813 830 903 979 1101 1219 1302 1416 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.6 101.5 102.4 103.2 105.0 106.8 108.7 110.6 112.5 114.5 116.6 118.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 54 57 54 52 52 50 49 40 27 33 30 23 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 31. 34. 37. 37. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962012 INVEST 07/03/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)