* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 08/13/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 42 50 56 61 62 57 53 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 30 28 33 38 33 33 28 20 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 27 27 31 35 33 36 32 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 6 4 11 11 4 7 11 13 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -2 0 -3 3 12 0 1 2 6 9 SHEAR DIR 360 356 23 352 325 260 341 20 331 279 275 240 208 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.3 30.2 30.6 30.1 26.4 20.2 19.2 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 170 172 172 169 169 173 168 130 65 62 62 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 8 9 10 10 9 7 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 88 85 84 84 84 81 79 74 74 74 72 71 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 21 16 27 41 43 62 68 83 54 35 13 -13 200 MB DIV 81 64 63 79 98 90 78 48 13 24 8 0 14 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 0 2 8 -8 0 1 -13 0 0 17 LAND (KM) 180 128 76 42 13 -42 -83 85 51 -32 83 266 426 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.7 15.3 16.0 16.6 18.2 19.7 21.5 23.3 25.0 26.6 28.0 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 97.3 98.0 98.9 99.7 101.6 104.0 106.4 108.9 111.8 114.8 117.7 120.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 29 40 52 65 46 60 63 57 36 27 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 7. 16. 26. 34. 37. 36. 34. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 31. 36. 37. 32. 28. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 08/13/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)