* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 08/13/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 39 45 51 58 60 59 57 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 28 27 27 27 36 33 36 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 25 26 26 27 32 32 37 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 7 6 8 12 12 6 5 9 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 1 -3 -2 -1 0 3 1 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 10 2 19 51 357 284 281 301 343 262 221 251 192 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.4 30.2 30.5 30.4 28.7 23.8 21.4 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 168 170 172 170 168 172 171 153 102 78 70 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.3 -51.6 -50.6 -50.7 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 9 8 12 8 12 6 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 86 86 84 83 82 83 79 75 75 75 72 72 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 26 19 11 22 47 60 61 76 60 79 67 66 200 MB DIV 72 83 71 57 68 53 79 37 52 33 17 2 7 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 1 9 -2 4 -4 5 5 0 13 LAND (KM) 210 128 78 27 -8 -72 -129 -24 150 -17 101 336 586 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.8 19.3 20.9 22.3 23.5 24.4 24.9 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 95.3 96.1 96.9 97.7 98.5 100.5 102.7 105.1 107.5 110.2 113.2 116.5 120.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 37 49 27 5 5 9 48 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 7. 16. 26. 34. 38. 39. 37. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 20. 26. 33. 35. 34. 32. 27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 08/13/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)