* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 06/20/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 23 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 7 5 10 13 14 16 22 15 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 6 10 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 36 63 110 90 121 162 187 178 159 146 137 128 134 SST (C) 26.7 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.3 24.8 23.9 22.8 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 122 119 118 116 115 114 112 108 99 88 80 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 61 58 56 54 55 52 52 52 52 49 47 41 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 86 90 95 88 83 93 93 86 70 59 51 60 200 MB DIV 30 36 39 12 -5 -3 -12 -8 3 -9 -6 10 8 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 353 400 447 497 523 536 554 570 568 546 516 512 522 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.8 19.5 20.3 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.6 109.2 109.8 110.4 111.2 111.8 112.2 112.4 112.9 113.4 114.1 114.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 2 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -26. -31. -36. -40. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 06/20/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952012 INVEST 06/20/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##