* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 06/19/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 30 30 29 29 29 24 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 30 30 29 29 29 24 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 11 9 12 8 13 18 19 20 13 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 4 6 2 10 0 3 -1 0 4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 35 54 60 41 64 159 185 173 180 164 158 116 134 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.7 26.0 25.4 25.1 24.1 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 131 131 133 133 133 128 121 114 111 102 82 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 6 8 6 7 5 6 3 4 2 700-500 MB RH 71 66 67 66 62 60 57 60 60 60 60 62 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 76 96 103 99 93 85 91 104 115 87 74 51 200 MB DIV 44 65 82 63 48 42 18 26 14 22 11 33 35 700-850 TADV 8 11 12 10 12 2 4 4 2 0 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 270 257 245 234 223 194 165 177 226 281 255 136 69 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 3 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 7 7 8 11 8 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -6. -11. -15. -18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 06/19/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952012 INVEST 06/19/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##