* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 06/19/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 34 34 35 36 33 31 28 26 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 34 34 35 36 33 31 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 31 30 29 29 29 28 27 24 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 14 12 8 8 11 20 19 17 18 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 4 5 2 5 1 3 4 2 6 0 SHEAR DIR 23 34 51 53 31 111 181 191 163 162 142 129 116 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 27.0 26.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 134 135 136 137 138 137 134 131 132 126 114 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 6 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 65 67 66 60 60 63 65 64 67 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 11 12 10 9 9 10 8 7 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 55 78 94 98 88 85 78 84 82 83 58 61 200 MB DIV 43 50 70 67 50 56 28 9 28 14 37 15 59 700-850 TADV 7 13 18 19 8 2 5 2 5 2 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 292 267 245 234 224 203 153 134 129 127 139 217 60 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 9 11 13 16 16 14 11 12 5 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 802 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. 0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 06/19/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952012 INVEST 06/19/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##