* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 06/18/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 28 27 25 23 22 22 20 19 18 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 28 27 25 23 22 22 20 19 18 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 27 27 25 23 21 20 18 17 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 9 6 12 14 14 16 12 11 9 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 0 0 7 5 2 9 7 6 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 61 58 69 37 40 58 101 120 134 150 186 210 224 SST (C) 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.7 26.1 26.1 26.4 26.1 25.3 25.0 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 116 114 114 119 124 125 128 125 116 113 111 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 73 75 76 72 70 66 59 53 50 44 38 35 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 11 18 28 50 64 73 55 41 22 11 -10 200 MB DIV 23 32 34 48 74 30 25 6 15 -4 -4 -14 -15 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -3 -3 -3 8 22 24 16 14 11 9 9 LAND (KM) 506 505 505 523 542 640 779 957 1154 1341 1494 1645 1792 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.2 16.2 15.2 14.4 14.0 14.0 13.8 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.3 109.5 109.8 110.0 110.9 112.2 114.1 116.3 118.6 120.8 122.8 124.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 2 3 7 9 11 12 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 3 3 5 8 2 0 12 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 06/18/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952012 INVEST 06/18/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##