* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 06/17/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 25 22 21 22 23 24 25 27 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 25 22 21 22 23 24 25 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 26 25 23 21 20 19 19 19 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 12 11 10 14 13 16 20 18 13 15 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 0 -2 -1 8 5 5 2 2 2 1 -7 SHEAR DIR 84 57 64 78 53 53 102 111 103 124 146 134 119 SST (C) 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.6 25.5 26.0 26.6 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 118 115 114 122 129 134 137 138 138 137 141 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 73 76 76 73 71 64 62 60 58 53 48 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -2 8 14 22 44 52 70 66 54 39 30 26 200 MB DIV 26 22 25 25 24 39 53 36 35 27 32 41 37 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -1 -3 -2 15 14 7 6 3 2 4 LAND (KM) 519 511 502 513 524 604 748 920 1091 1192 1250 1284 1297 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.0 15.7 14.3 13.3 12.9 12.7 12.5 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.2 109.4 109.6 109.8 110.2 110.9 111.8 113.0 114.1 115.0 115.3 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 2 2 6 8 8 7 5 3 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 4 3 7 12 16 30 33 29 31 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 915 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 06/17/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952012 INVEST 06/17/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##