* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 06/13/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 28 34 40 45 48 49 47 42 35 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 28 34 40 45 48 49 47 42 35 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 28 29 31 33 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 18 18 19 23 17 12 8 6 8 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 4 4 6 5 8 3 1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 52 34 26 11 29 45 53 54 45 66 171 170 181 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.5 26.7 25.8 24.6 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 159 157 153 148 141 137 130 121 108 94 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 4 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 75 70 69 66 61 61 59 64 65 70 66 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 35 43 41 38 34 29 25 8 16 7 14 18 200 MB DIV 102 65 85 77 69 48 28 32 42 80 65 48 21 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -5 -7 -10 -5 -5 -9 -6 -8 -1 7 LAND (KM) 748 750 755 747 745 743 769 775 777 761 706 609 660 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.2 15.4 16.8 18.3 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.0 104.5 105.1 105.7 106.8 108.0 109.1 109.9 110.8 111.9 113.2 114.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 8 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 39 41 44 46 47 48 47 31 25 17 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 23. 29. 33. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 27. 22. 15. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 06/13/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952012 INVEST 06/13/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##