* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 08/08/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 37 39 41 42 44 44 45 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 37 39 41 42 44 44 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 35 36 36 36 37 38 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 20 18 22 30 33 28 40 37 38 28 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 5 5 3 0 2 2 5 SHEAR DIR 42 63 80 91 94 93 89 75 76 74 69 77 71 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 153 153 151 151 149 152 154 155 158 159 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 61 57 59 59 65 71 75 78 82 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -44 -38 -30 -25 -12 4 10 32 36 45 50 30 200 MB DIV 58 47 42 48 44 51 84 114 137 119 100 81 43 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 2 1 2 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 778 795 805 816 830 883 943 978 941 812 654 511 404 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.2 10.9 10.4 10.0 10.2 11.1 12.4 13.7 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.4 105.1 105.6 106.0 106.5 106.7 106.6 106.2 105.3 104.7 104.5 104.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 4 3 2 3 2 4 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 46 47 46 45 47 43 38 34 36 45 57 60 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 19. 19. 20. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 08/08/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)