* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 06/10/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 45 53 65 73 74 78 79 84 81 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 45 53 65 73 74 78 79 84 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 40 46 54 63 72 79 82 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 15 13 14 17 14 15 18 18 18 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 -2 -2 0 3 0 -4 0 2 2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 99 117 101 103 92 89 96 78 82 78 66 58 63 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 157 156 153 152 150 148 145 144 142 141 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -51.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -53.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 77 74 76 73 75 72 68 66 65 64 63 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 10 12 12 11 14 14 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 6 9 15 29 32 32 37 38 36 37 35 45 49 200 MB DIV 150 132 95 65 56 54 79 40 45 31 38 5 -5 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 -4 -4 -1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1013 1039 1073 1106 1144 1237 1374 1467 1586 1729 1891 2051 2197 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.9 10.1 10.6 11.0 11.2 11.1 10.7 10.1 9.3 8.7 LONG(DEG W) 106.2 107.1 107.9 108.9 109.8 112.1 114.4 116.4 118.4 120.1 121.7 123.0 124.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 41 39 41 60 72 65 58 46 48 34 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 6. 9. 10. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 28. 40. 48. 49. 53. 54. 59. 56. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 06/10/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932012 INVEST 06/10/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##