* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932012 06/09/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 44 57 68 75 78 78 81 82 82 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 44 57 68 75 78 78 81 82 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 35 41 48 56 64 72 77 80 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 10 10 14 11 10 17 16 11 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 6 5 0 -2 2 3 -2 -2 2 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 89 103 118 87 86 75 81 78 60 70 73 56 41 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 158 157 154 151 149 146 141 140 140 139 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 77 75 75 71 70 67 67 64 64 62 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 11 13 13 13 12 14 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 3 8 14 17 25 29 33 35 24 31 38 44 45 200 MB DIV 117 154 143 101 75 69 85 86 35 49 17 20 9 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 -5 -5 -4 -5 -2 -1 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 993 1013 1042 1071 1105 1182 1304 1417 1527 1666 1836 1992 2128 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.5 11.1 11.5 11.6 11.5 11.1 10.6 10.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.2 107.1 108.1 109.0 111.1 113.6 116.0 118.2 120.2 122.1 123.8 125.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 45 47 47 45 47 58 51 57 42 46 35 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 9. 9. 9. 9. 12. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 32. 43. 50. 53. 53. 56. 57. 57. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932012 INVEST 06/09/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932012 INVEST 06/09/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##