* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 08/07/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 47 55 59 59 56 55 55 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 47 55 59 59 56 55 55 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 45 47 47 45 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 9 9 6 3 5 5 0 3 3 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -2 -4 -4 -5 -2 -5 -3 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 63 45 56 65 72 85 66 44 86 120 84 73 67 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 27.9 26.9 26.0 25.2 24.7 24.4 24.2 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 153 151 143 133 123 114 109 105 103 102 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 72 73 75 71 73 72 71 65 60 57 54 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 22 20 18 23 23 15 11 9 33 35 39 50 53 200 MB DIV 59 60 55 63 75 31 51 26 31 11 6 8 0 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 840 884 941 989 984 1016 1089 1146 1243 1364 1491 1588 1690 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.5 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.8 111.8 112.8 113.8 115.7 117.7 119.4 121.2 122.8 124.3 125.5 126.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 55 48 35 26 34 21 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 30. 34. 34. 31. 30. 30. 28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 08/07/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)