* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 08/06/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 40 48 53 55 54 51 47 45 42 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 40 48 53 55 54 51 47 45 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 41 44 44 42 40 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 8 8 6 3 6 6 4 1 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -5 -3 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -4 0 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 66 72 62 74 71 73 99 110 83 128 102 190 257 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.0 26.0 24.8 24.2 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 147 144 134 124 111 105 103 102 102 102 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 74 72 72 69 63 60 55 49 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 19 18 17 14 15 11 13 13 26 33 32 39 47 200 MB DIV 57 50 59 49 48 44 32 23 15 -9 0 1 16 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 -5 -1 0 0 2 2 3 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 785 815 861 924 946 962 1035 1098 1221 1389 1531 1664 1796 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.3 17.7 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.9 110.9 112.0 113.1 115.1 117.2 119.2 121.3 123.5 125.4 127.1 128.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 48 45 33 32 20 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 20. 20. 21. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 28. 30. 29. 26. 22. 20. 17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 08/06/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)