* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 08/06/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 42 48 58 67 69 68 65 63 60 57 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 42 48 58 67 69 68 65 63 60 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 47 55 62 63 58 53 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 8 5 4 5 7 3 6 6 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -5 -5 -2 -3 -3 -5 -4 -3 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 60 50 71 103 96 98 119 177 172 174 187 197 178 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.3 26.3 25.2 24.5 24.3 24.4 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 152 151 147 137 127 115 108 105 106 106 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 72 76 73 72 72 71 71 64 61 56 52 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 9 13 17 15 16 12 21 22 30 21 19 200 MB DIV 53 45 38 37 42 50 31 23 25 6 7 4 11 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -1 -2 -5 0 0 1 0 3 1 2 LAND (KM) 700 715 738 757 786 917 943 1024 1113 1228 1389 1547 1669 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.1 16.9 17.3 17.4 17.2 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.8 107.8 108.8 109.8 112.1 114.4 116.6 118.9 121.0 123.1 124.8 126.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 54 54 49 49 50 36 25 17 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 23. 33. 42. 44. 43. 40. 38. 35. 32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 08/06/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)