* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 05/20/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 30 38 49 57 64 65 67 56 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 30 38 49 57 64 65 67 56 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 35 41 48 54 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 20 15 13 8 9 12 11 13 22 22 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 1 2 -1 0 -1 -5 -3 -3 0 6 SHEAR DIR 91 97 110 114 127 109 101 108 117 126 101 108 119 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 162 161 162 164 161 157 154 154 154 152 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 8 7 7 6 7 8 8 10 700-500 MB RH 80 79 80 79 78 76 74 66 63 58 53 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 10 13 13 14 15 15 8 4 850 MB ENV VOR 54 53 43 43 47 30 36 30 46 55 51 55 33 200 MB DIV 124 107 122 114 117 137 115 134 153 116 83 103 7 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -6 -5 0 LAND (KM) 771 762 752 745 743 728 711 664 612 548 450 326 221 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.7 12.5 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 98.3 98.7 99.0 99.5 100.0 101.0 102.2 103.2 103.8 104.0 103.5 102.6 101.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 6 4 4 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 36 35 35 36 38 42 62 76 64 45 37 39 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 13. 24. 32. 39. 40. 42. 31. 26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 05/20/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922012 INVEST 05/20/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##