* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 05/20/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 30 37 47 57 66 72 72 72 62 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 30 37 47 57 66 72 72 72 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 45 52 57 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 18 19 12 13 9 7 14 11 14 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 -3 1 3 0 0 0 -6 -3 -5 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 103 100 107 122 129 109 112 73 93 113 96 91 107 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 161 161 161 163 163 160 155 152 152 151 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -53.5 -52.5 -53.1 -52.1 -52.8 -51.3 -51.6 -50.4 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 8 7 700-500 MB RH 82 78 79 80 78 77 75 70 69 65 61 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 10 12 14 17 20 18 19 13 850 MB ENV VOR 50 55 49 42 45 47 35 42 48 49 49 50 43 200 MB DIV 115 108 110 109 106 141 125 132 125 149 111 121 37 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 3 2 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 771 766 761 763 766 773 763 735 706 654 577 451 290 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.6 10.2 11.0 11.7 12.4 13.1 14.1 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 98.3 98.6 98.9 99.3 99.7 100.8 102.0 103.2 104.1 104.7 104.6 104.0 103.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 5 4 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 36 35 35 35 35 39 49 72 66 55 42 27 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 19. 17. 18. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 12. 22. 32. 41. 47. 47. 47. 37. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 05/20/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922012 INVEST 05/20/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##