* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 05/19/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 33 41 48 56 66 71 77 79 80 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 33 41 48 56 66 71 77 79 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 31 34 39 46 55 65 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 16 14 15 16 9 16 11 11 12 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 0 0 -2 0 -4 -3 -2 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 140 128 123 124 114 107 107 89 73 73 109 122 97 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 162 162 161 160 159 160 161 162 159 154 148 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.4 -53.3 -52.5 -53.2 -52.1 -52.8 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 75 77 76 76 76 75 73 67 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 9 10 11 14 14 16 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 44 52 54 49 52 58 49 62 53 45 46 52 55 200 MB DIV 131 161 163 141 106 110 120 125 98 122 108 77 69 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 3 3 2 0 -3 -1 -1 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 581 606 632 668 705 764 822 839 838 805 738 666 557 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.8 10.5 10.2 9.9 9.5 9.2 9.4 9.9 10.7 11.7 12.6 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 99.6 99.6 99.5 99.7 99.8 100.3 101.0 101.9 103.0 104.1 105.0 105.5 105.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 52 50 47 45 42 40 39 41 64 88 94 86 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 5. 9. 10. 13. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 16. 23. 31. 41. 46. 52. 54. 55. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 05/19/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922012 INVEST 05/19/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##