* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 05/19/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 43 50 59 67 73 73 76 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 35 43 50 59 67 73 73 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 35 42 50 58 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 17 16 16 17 15 9 11 10 14 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 1 -4 -1 1 0 0 -3 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 154 149 141 129 131 118 99 102 80 65 78 80 64 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 161 161 161 161 160 160 160 161 160 156 150 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.4 -53.2 -52.3 -53.2 -52.1 -52.7 -51.8 -52.3 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 73 76 77 77 77 76 75 72 74 71 69 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 13 16 17 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 22 28 35 43 48 50 55 59 66 49 43 36 54 200 MB DIV 124 137 148 166 167 122 120 117 123 111 111 51 61 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 -2 -3 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 608 615 623 638 654 732 793 858 917 953 943 938 910 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.8 10.4 11.1 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 100.3 100.4 100.4 100.6 100.7 101.3 102.0 103.0 104.1 105.4 106.7 107.9 108.8 STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 1 2 2 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 51 51 50 50 50 46 45 63 81 78 68 58 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 25. 34. 42. 48. 48. 51. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 05/19/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 148.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922012 INVEST 05/19/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##