* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 05/18/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 28 32 40 46 54 60 66 74 74 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 28 32 40 46 54 60 66 74 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 25 27 29 33 39 46 54 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 20 17 17 18 16 13 12 12 14 13 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 0 0 -2 0 -2 0 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 145 146 149 135 134 111 100 97 87 72 72 81 81 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 160 160 161 161 160 159 159 161 161 159 148 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 74 73 76 79 79 79 76 75 75 75 71 67 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 8 10 11 13 15 16 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 7 17 20 28 39 42 50 40 62 58 55 39 43 200 MB DIV 82 115 134 141 157 145 126 125 141 138 100 96 53 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 3 2 1 0 -2 -4 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 630 623 614 626 639 698 763 835 890 913 903 850 818 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.2 9.8 9.4 9.3 9.6 10.3 11.5 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 100.6 100.4 100.2 100.3 100.3 100.5 101.1 101.8 102.8 104.0 105.5 107.0 108.5 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 7 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 51 51 52 51 50 44 39 37 50 83 83 73 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 18. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 15. 21. 29. 35. 41. 49. 49. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 05/18/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922012 INVEST 05/18/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##